Performance of Forecasts of Hurricanes with and without Upper-Level Troughs over the Mid-Latitudes
We investigated the accuracy of operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 29 Atlantic hurricanes between 2007 and 2019.Upper-level troughs with strong wind promoted northward movement of hurricanes over the mid-latitudes.For hurricanes with upper-level troughs, relatively large errors in the prediction of troughs result in large ensemble spre